The first half of 2023 saw the beginning of a banking crisis that will have repercussions for years to come, which will lead to a period of consolidation within the banking industry as well as a rethink of the role of banks in the US economy. During this period of significant stress, it is important to note that there are vast differences in the quality of banks as well as diverse operating models which will result in broadly varied outcomes.

Halfway through 2023, views on whether a recession is likely to occur before year-end are mixed. JPMorgan Chase’s 2023 Midyear Business Leaders Outlook survey found that 45% of business leaders anticipate a recession in 2023 or believe the economy is currently in one, down from 65% at the beginning of the year. However, 36% don’t expect a recession to happen, and 20% are unsure.

Conditions beyond the control of the U.S. government may exist for a collapse of the almighty dollar.
Hyperinflation and government spending hallmarking the U.S. economy over the past three years haven’t helped keep the dollar’s value as stable as economists and everyday Americans had hoped.
However, a more likely trigger for the dollar’s precarious situation exists outside our nation’s borders.
It is the acronym BRICS, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

Two major U.S. banks — Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank — closed in March 2023. But while these shut downs came as a shock to the general public, there is some positive news for the average bank account holder: Over the last two years, banking has shifted to favor the depositor. Not only have the amount of banking fees dropped, but consumers’ interest earnings have risen dramatically — with interest rates seeing particularly notable increases in the third and fourth quarter of 2022.

It’s a mixed bag when it comes to calling a recession for the U.S. economy sometime this year. Most economists still see a recession as the U.S. Federal Reserve sends signals of more interest rate hikes to decelerate inflation.
The good news is people are working and unemployment is low. Also, consumers have continued to spend—more recently on services, but the buying of goods, in particular durable goods like big-ticket items including appliances and cars, could slow down. That would be a positive because it would help drive slower inflation.

Advice and insights from major players

The cannabis market in the United States was valued at nearly $11 billion in 2021, according to Cleveland-based Nova One Advisor, and it is expected to reach $40.5 billion by 2030. The market research company estimates that demand for weed will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 14.9% from 2022 to 2030.

“The increasing demand for cannabis is likely to propel the entry of new companies in the future, fueled by increasing awareness and acceptance regarding cannabis use for medical purposes,” Nova One Advisor noted in a June 2022 market report.

Despite being handcuffed and locked away at the Kamiti Maximum Security Prison for possessing banned books in December of 1977, he was convicted without court or trial for a year in Kenya.

Ngugi wa Thiong’o, vividly remembers writing his novel “Devil on the Cross” which was published in 1980 – on rough toilet paper – while tucked away in his cell. He didn’t want the prison guards to discover his manuscript. He later managed to smuggle out his opus from the “Kamiti Downs,” the prison’s original name.

Here are Agecroft Partners’ 14th annual predictions for the biggest trends in the hedge fund industry for 2023. These predictions are based on dialogue with more than 2,000 institutional investors located globally and hundreds of hedge fund organizations. They are also predicated upon an economic forecast of continued rising interest rates for at least the 1st half of 2023 and a moderate recession. The hedge fund industry is dynamic and both managers and investors can benefit from anticipating, and preparing for, the changes likely to occur.